Is Russia planning a ‘false flag’ attack on Moldova? | Russia-Ukraine war News

Russia has accused Moldova of planning a military operation in Transnistria, a breakaway region from Russia, prompting concerns from some analysts that Moscow could launch a “false flag” attack on Moldova.

Russian intelligence earlier this week said Moldovan President Maia Sandu is planning a military operation in Transnistria, which borders Ukraine. Sandu was sworn in for his second term as president on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said NATO was making Moldova a weapons base for Ukraine, an allegation that could fuel fears that Moscow could seek pretexts to take action against its tiny neighbor.

Here’s more about what’s going on with Russia and Moldova – and what to expect.

What does Russia say?

On Monday, Russia’s intelligence service said Moldovan Sandu was planning a military operation in Transnistria. Russian intelligence speculated that military operations might escalate into war.

Sandu’s chief of staff, Adrian Balutel, denied that, saying that the country has no such plans to enter Transnistria militarily, although it says that the area is part of Moldova.

Then, on Wednesday, Russia added a new allegation – that the US-led NATO has transferred a large number of weapons to Moldova in recent months. Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said Moscow believed the weapons were ultimately intended for Ukraine. He mentioned Sandu’s tendency towards the West to strengthen his claims.

In recent months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that not only Ukraine, but other countries that help in its war with Moscow may be considered by the Kremlin as potential enemies.

What are the ‘false flags’ that concern you?

Since Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sandu has signaled that Moldova could be the next target of Moscow’s attack, urging Western leaders to address Moldova’s concerns.

When Sandu was sworn in for his second term this week in the capital Chisinau, he said, “We were able to open the door to the European Union.” Moldova has been a candidate country for the EU since June 2022, waiting for Brussels to formally accept its request to join the bloc.

The Kremlin’s latest allegations, say analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, in Washington, DC, may be part of a larger plan to disrupt Moldova’s entry into the European Union (EU), by destroying it. The Kremlin, ISW warned in the report, could also set conditions for “false flag operations in Transnistria”.

What is Transnistria?

Transnistria is a breakaway region bordering Russia in Moldova, which lies between Moldova’s part of the Dniester River and Ukraine. Romania lies to its West.

The region seceded from Moldova in 1990. In September 2006, we passed a referendum confirming its independence and calling for a union with Russia. This referendum was not recognized by Moldova.

In February 2022, the leaders of Transnistria appealed to Russia for protection. The complaint came days after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and was similar to complaints made to Russia by pro-Moscow leaders in parts of Ukraine, which Russia used as a pretext for seizing Crimea in 2014, as well as large parts of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. in 2022.

Internationally, Transnistria is recognized as belonging to Moldova, but Europe considers the region to be occupied by Russia as of 2022.

Transnistria hosts Russian troops, as well as a Russian arsenal, the Cobasna ammunition depot.

Currently, 1,500 Russian soldiers are operating in the rebel-held region of Moldova, according to a report published by the Harvard International Review in October.

What other ways is Russia pressuring Moldova?

Politics: Moldova voted in presidential elections last month amid claims of Russian interference. However, pro-Western Sandu won 55.33% of the votes, defeating former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who was supported by the Russian Socialist Party.

In a report published earlier this year, the London-based think tank, Chatham House, said that the think tank’s research “suggests that Moscow is also targeting the information space of the Moldovan public with toxic disinformation”.

Moldova’s national security service also accused pro-Russian oligarchs in Moldova of paying millions of euros to stage anti-government protests and commit electoral fraud. They include former Moldovan parliament member Ilan Shor, who was found guilty in absentia of fraud charges in January.

Power: Meanwhile, Moldova is facing an energy crisis. Moldova receives about 2 billion cubic meters (71 billion cubic feet) of gas from Russia every year. From 2022, all this gas is sent to Transnistria.

Transnistria then sells electricity, generated from Russian gas, to Moldova.

However, this gas comes through a pipeline through Ukraine. Kyiv has now decided that it will no longer allow the transport of this gas. Sandu accused Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, of refusing to consider the use of another pipeline, and tried to prepare Moldova for what he said would be a “difficult” winter without Russian electricity.

Russian gas exports to Moldova are expected to run out on January 1, 2025. Earlier in December, Moldova declared a state of emergency due to an impending shortage.

Transnistria then sells electricity to Moldova, which is powered by Russian gas.

Violence: In April 2022, an explosion hit the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, the largest city in Transnistria. A day later, more explosions destroyed two powerful radio antennas among other facilities in Transnistria.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, along with other Ukrainian allies, said the blast was yet another false flag attack orchestrated by Russia to portray Transnistria as being attacked by Moldova – because of Moldova’s support for Ukraine.