What will Putin do next?

“What will Vladimir Putin do next?”

It’s a question I’ve been asked a lot this week.

Understandably so.

After all, this was the week that the Kremlin leader lowered the limit on the use of Russian nuclear weapons.

It was the week that the US and the UK crossed (another) Putin red line, allowing Ukraine to fire Western-supplied long-range missiles into Russia.

It was also the week that President Putin, in fact, threatened the UK, America and any other country that supplies Ukraine with such weapons and because of that.

“We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military bases of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our territories,” the Russian leader said in his address to the nation on Thursday evening.

So you can see: “What will Vladimir Putin do next?” a very pressing question. And, since I’m the BBC’s Russian editor, you’d expect me to have an answer.

I will be honest with you. I don’t want to.

Maybe even Putin doesn’t know the answer, which makes things even more serious.

Instead of answers, some observations.

This week the Kremlin blamed the “collective West” for fueling the war in Ukraine.

But almost three years of war in Ukraine has shown that it is Vladimir Putin who accepts escalation as a means to achieve his goals – in this case, control of Ukraine or at least peace on Russian terms.

Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, his decision to declare four Ukrainian territories part of Russia, his deployment of North Korean troops in the Kursk region, his decision on Thursday to target the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile, followed by threats to attack the West – all of these represent periods of escalation in the conflict.

I once described Vladimir Putin as a car with no reverse gear and no brakes, driving down the highway, accelerator pedal stuck to the floor.

In my opinion, little has changed.

Don’t expect the Putinmobile to suddenly slow down or slow down now in the face of Russia’s long-range missiles.

However, expansion is another matter. That is a different possibility.

Ukraine will be bracing for more Russian attacks, even heavier bombs.

Western governments will be assessing the threat level following Putin’s warnings.

Even before the Kremlin leader’s televised speech, there were fears in the West about the outbreak of Russian hybrid wars.

Last month the head of MI5 warned that Russian military intelligence was on a mission to “create chaos on the streets of Britain and Europe”.

“We have seen property burning, vandalism and so on,” he added.

Back in June, Putin suggested that Moscow might arm Western enemies if Ukraine were allowed to strike deep into Russia with Western long-range missiles.

“We believe that if someone thinks that it is possible to give such weapons to the battlefield to attack our territory and cause problems,” he said, “why can’t we give our weapons of the same class to those nearby regions of the world where they will target the critical areas of the countries that are doing this to Russia?”

Putin warns West as Russia hits Ukraine with new missile

The question “What will Putin do next?” often followed by: “Would Putin use a nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine?”

The Russian president dropped some not-so-subtle hints.

In announcing the start of his “special military operation” – a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – he issued a warning to “those who might be tempted to interfere”.

“No matter who tries to stand in our way or threaten our country and our people,” said the Kremlin leader, “they must know that Russia will respond immediately.

“And the results will be the likes of which you have never seen in your entire history.”

Western leaders generally dismissed what they saw as nuclear provocations. Since the beginning of the war, Western governments have crossed several Russian “red lines”: supplying Ukraine with tanks, advanced missile systems and F-16 aircraft.

The “consequences” threatened by the Kremlin never materialized.

In September Putin announced that he was lowering the limit on the use of nuclear weapons – the law was published this week. It is a clear warning to Europe and America not to allow long-range missile attacks on Russian territory.

Now this red line, too, has been crossed. In his address to the nation, Putin confirmed Western reports that Ukraine had fired US-supplied Atacms and British-made Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia.

Earlier this week, when the pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets asked the retired lieutenant-general how Russia should respond to the Atacms attack in the Bryansk region, he replied:

“Starting the Third World War with strikes on the Bryansk region armory may have been a misunderstanding.”

It would be comforting to think that the Kremlin agrees with that view.

But Vladimir Putin’s speech to the nation had no evidence of that.

His message to supporters of Ukraine in the West appeared to be: this is a red line that I take seriously, I dare you to cross it.

“Even Putin doesn’t know if he can use a nuclear weapon, or he won’t be able to.” It depends on his feelings,” Novaya Gazeta correspondent Andrei Kolesnikov said recently.

“We know that he is a very emotional man. The decision to start this war was an emotional one. Because of that we have to take seriously his idea of ​​nuclear reform. They say that the fear of war must return and it will contain both sides, but this is also a tool for spreading.

“In this definition we must admit that Putin, under certain conditions, can use at least a tactical nuclear weapon in the framework of a limited nuclear war. It will not solve the problem. But it will be the beginning of an increase in suicides around the world.”

Smart nuclear weapons are small warheads intended for use on the battlefield or for a limited strike.

Vladimir Putin may act on emotions. And, apparently, he is driven by Western resentment and seems determined not to back down.

But you also know that the world could be a very different place.

In two months, Joe Biden will be out of office and Donald Trump will be in the White House.

President-Elect Trump has expressed doubts about US military aid to Ukraine and has been highly critical of NATO.

He also said that talking to Vladimir Putin “would be a smart thing”.

All that must be music to Putin’s ears.

Which means, despite recent threats and warnings, the Kremlin may decide against a major expansion yet.

That is, if the Kremlin calculates that Donald Trump will help end the war on favorable terms for Russia.

If that figure changes, so may Moscow’s response.