The US threat to cut off military aid to Israel is a sign of anger over unfulfilled promises

The first aid in two weeks has flowed into northern Gaza following a letter from the US that gave Israel 30 days to increase humanitarian access, or risk military aid being cut off.

The letter is widely criticized by the Biden administration for the way Israel has blocked humanitarian aid to Gaza. It was signed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and was supposed to be secret, it was even leaked to Israeli journalists.

It is a plan for a completely different approach that Israel is taking in aid operations in Gaza – to speed it up, rather than limit it. The book is a systematic examination of Israel’s blockade of aid delivery – and how its forced displacement of civilians has put 1.7 million Palestinians at greater risk of disease.

It even challenges Israel’s long-standing attack on UNRWA, the UN agency responsible for Palestinian refugees.

The US is “deeply concerned” by the proposed new laws that will “remove certain rights and protections”. An Israeli government minister wants to seize the UNRWA headquarters in East Jerusalem in order to use the land to settle Jews.

The US says it acknowledges Israel’s concerns about UNRWA, but that restrictions on it would “destroy” the humanitarian effort in Gaza and the education and welfare of tens of thousands of Palestinians in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

The letter could not be easily read by the two people who received it, Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, and Ron Dermer, the minister of strategic affairs, who is one of the closest advisers to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

That’s not just because the letter describes “the US government’s deep concern about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza”. It also contains a reminder, which is also a threat, that US laws prohibit the transfer of arms to countries that block the distribution of US aid.

Gallant set the tone for Israel’s approach to humanitarian aid flows to Gaza two days after the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas. He announced a “total siege” of the Gaza Strip. No oil or food will be allowed in, he said. “Everything is closed… We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly.”

Pressure, not least from the Americans, forced Israel to moderate Gallant’s plan, but the aid that came was never regular or sufficient. However, in recent months, restrictions have been tightened, which appears to be the reason for the letter. It is a sign of resentment and anger within the Biden administration that Israel has not kept its promises to keep aid flowing to Gaza.

The head of the European Union and leading human rights organizations have accused Israel of using hunger as a weapon of war. In May, Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, accused Prime Minister Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant of starving civilians as part of his request for the court to issue arrest warrants for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Both men denied the allegations.

When Netanyahu spoke at the UN General Assembly in New York on 27 September, he dismissed allegations that Israel was starving Gazans as “silly”. He presents a version of Israel’s role in the Gaza aid program that completely contradicts that described in Blinken’s and Austin’s book.

For Netanyahu, these accusations were another sign of disagreement with the UN and its institutions.

He said Israel was plagued by “lies and slander”.

“Good is revealed as evil, and evil is revealed as good.”

“We are helping to deliver 700,000 tons of food to Gaza. That is more than 3,000 calories a day for every man, woman, and child in Gaza.”

The hard facts in the US book are in stark contrast to his emotional rhetoric. Some of them focused on the restrictions imposed by Israel in September, when Netanyahu made his claims in New York.

• “The amount of aid entering Gaza in September was lower than any month during the last year” – in other words, since before the Hamas attack on October 7 last year.
• The US is deeply concerned about “the recent actions of the Israeli government – including halting imports, denying or preventing nearly 90% of humanitarian movement between north and south Gaza in September”

The Americans also criticize the way Israel is delaying the delivery of aid by imposing strict rules, and making a number of specific demands:

• They want to remove the restrictions on the use of trucks and closed containers, and increase the number of drivers tested to 400. UN agencies say the shortage of drivers and trucks has made getting aid to Gaza very difficult.
• Israel must strengthen and speed up security and inspection of goods. Aid organizations say strict rules are being used to slow down delivery
• The Americans want aid to be put into the port of Ashdod for a “quick” route to the Gaza Strip. Ashdod is a modern Israeli container port just north of Gaza. After Israel refused to allow it to be used, the US spent around $230m (£174m) on a float to transport aid to Gaza that broke down due to bad weather before it could make a difference.
• Israel should also remove restrictions on imports from Jordan

Israel says Hamas is stealing aid and selling it at inflated prices. Americans are not directly involved in that, except for one sentence that acknowledges widespread “lawlessness and looting.” Front and center in the book is Israel’s squeeze on Gaza.

Their criticism goes beyond the aid mission in Gaza. It wants an end to the separation of Northern Gaza, where nationalists in Netanyahu’s cabinet want to displace Palestinians and replace them with Jewish settlers.

Concerns over northern Gaza have increased since Israel began its current offensive.

The military’s actions are part of a plan put in place by a group of retired officials, led by Giora Eiland, a general and former national security adviser to Israel. Eiland says he wanted a deal to return the hostages and end the war early. But since that is not possible, he believes that a much bigger step is needed.

Israel has already divided the north and south of Gaza with a corridor along the Gaza Strip that divides the area in two. Eiland told me that his plan was to open evacuation routes for a week to 10 days so that many of the 400,000 or so residents remaining in the north could leave. Then the field would be closed, all aid supplies cut off, and everyone left inside would be considered a legal casualty of the military.

A version of this system was seen in the Jabalia camp in the north, after it was shut down by Israeli soldiers, tanks and drones.

Blinken-Austin’s letter insists that there will be no “policy of the Israeli government to forcibly evict civilians from northern Gaza”. Aid agencies must have “continuous access to northern Gaza” and must be able to enter it from Israel rather than taking the dangerous and often deadly route from the south. Release orders must be canceled “when there is no need to operate”.

Israel has forced 1.7 million residents, most of whom have fled northern Gaza, into a narrow strip of land along the coast between al-Mawasi and the city of Deir al-Balah, where the letter says “overcrowding puts residents at great risk of contracting serious diseases”.

The Americans want the pressure to be eased, so that citizens are allowed to enter the country before winter. BBC Verify has learned that Israel has again bombed what it says is a Hamas target in what it calls a humanitarian aid station.

The book had immediate results. For the first time since early October, Israel has allowed a large number of aid trucks, although not yet to the scale requested by the US. Whether this letter can end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, especially in the absence of a ceasefire, is another matter.

Israel has been given 30 days to make things right. The US presidential election took place during that time. Before the day of the vote, the US was not going to limit arms exports to Israel, especially given the fact that the Israelis are on the brink of, possibly, a full-scale war with Iran.

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, the Biden administration will be able to keep the pressure on Israel until the opening in January.

It might be a different story if former President Donald Trump gets his second term. Based on Trump’s last four years in office, Netanyahu is likely to feel more free to do what he wants as the clock ticks down on Joe Biden’s time in the White House.

Biden has been widely criticized, in his own Democratic Party and abroad, for not using the power that should come with America’s position as Israel’s most important ally. Without US military and diplomatic support Israel will struggle to fight its wars. The book looks like a desperate attempt to apply pressure. In the last year of the war, Netanyahu has often ignored US wishes.

The change happened at the UN General Assembly in late September, when the US, the UK and other allies of Israel are believed to have talked Israel into accepting a 21-day truce in Lebanon to allow time for negotiations.

Instead, Netanyahu’s rhetoric doubled down, rejecting the deal and escalating the regional war. From his hotel in New York, he ordered the assassination of the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. Some senior Western officials complained that the Biden administration had been “played” by Netanyahu.

The book is a belated attempt to redress the balance. Biden is convinced that he can best influence Israel by offering unconditional support. He advised Israel after October 7 not to be blinded by anger, as he said America was behind the al-Qaeda attacks on 9/11.

But his wishes have been ignored by Netanyahu. Whether or not Israel listens to America’s demands on Gaza, as Biden enters his final lap as president, it is clear that his efforts to stop the escalation of the Gaza war in the Middle East have failed.

And as for the book, it will be too little, too late for all those people in Gaza who have suffered, and for those who have died, because of the months of restrictions on humanitarian aid imposed by Israel.