Southern California is headed for a day of extreme fire weather — the fifth time the National Weather Service has issued an “extremely dangerous” warning this season.
An “extremely hazardous” warning will be in effect Monday at noon and end Tuesday at 10 a.m. for most of Los Angeles County and most of Ventura County.
Maximum gusts of 50 mph to 70 mph are possible along the coast and in the valleys, while sustained winds are expected to be between 25 mph and 40 mph.
Isolated gusts of up to 100 mph are possible in the hills and mountains, with gusts expected to be between 30 mph and 50 mph, said Rose Schoenfeld, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office.
“Extremely dangerous condition” is a red flag booster, which simply warns of critical fire weather conditions and rapid fire spread in the event of ignition.
“The PDS highlights a high-risk area that allows for rapid fire growth if a fire can start,” Schoenfeld said.
The “high risk” areas are facing “very bad conditions — about as bad as possible,” said Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office.
(National Weather Service)
Areas in “especially vulnerable” Los Angeles County include the northern San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys, Malibu, Calabasas, Agoura Hills, Santa Clarita Valley and other northern areas.
They include areas like Altadena and Pasadena, but also areas in the northwest, from La Crescenta to the Porter Ranch area.
The northern San Gabriel Valley affected by the “particularly dangerous situation” is areas north of Interstate 210, which includes Altadena and much of Pasadena. Parts of the San Fernando Valley in this warning area include Reseda and Burbank and areas to the north.
Much of Ventura County is also in “particularly dangerous condition,” including Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Ventura, Camarillo, Moorpark, Santa Paula, Port Hueneme and Fillmore.
A general red flag warning – which warns of severe fire weather conditions and rapid fire spread in the event of ignition – will go into effect at 8 a.m. Monday for much of Southern California, and is expected to last until 10 p.m. Tuesday. .
A red flag warning in LA County will also include the San Gabriel Valley, Palos Verdes Peninsula and Santa Catalina Island.
Also included in the red flag warning are San Diego and Orange counties in the middle of the state and the greater Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
Red flag fire weather warnings have been issued for large areas of Southern California from Monday morning through Tuesday night.
(National Weather Service)
Unlike the devastating storm of Jan. 7-8, when the winds are out of the north and northeast, this week’s Santa Ana winds are expected to be traditional, and will be from the east and northeast, forecasters said.
That’s why forecasters expect that one of the hardest hit areas will be the Santa Ana wind tunnel from Palmdale to the southwest, such as Santa Clarita and Ventura, as the wind moves towards the coast.
The strongest winds are expected from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, Schoenfeld said.
Forecasters also warned of dangerous seas along the coast. “Strong winds will create dangerous sea conditions that can capsize or damage small and large vessels,” the weather service said.
What makes this “particularly dangerous situation” very different from the four previous warnings of this type since November is that “this may be one of the driest fire weather events we have seen so far this year,” said Schoenfeld.
Relative humidity may drop to just 3% in some areas, with drier air likely on Tuesday.
“So even though the winds are expected to decrease as Tuesday continues, we will urge people not to lose hope, because we will be marching towards another very low humidity at that time,” said Schoenfeld.
Next weekend could bring rain. There is a 50% to 70% chance of rain starting Saturday and lasting for the next two days – but also a 20% to 30% chance of thunderstorms. That could bring heavy rain to some isolated areas, as well as the risk of flooding near areas that have recently burned.
The good news is that there is a chance of more beneficial rain, which could help put out the fires. And a cold storm, which could drop snow levels as low as 4,000 feet above sea level, could bring snow to some mountain communities, Schoenfeld said.
“If we could get enough beneficial rain, it would change the fire climate,” Schoenfeld said.
The extreme lack of rain plays a large role in explaining Southern California’s fire problems, where vegetation dries out and burns, making brush more likely to turn into a spot fire if it lands on it.
The last time the city of LA received more than one-tenth of an inch of rain in a single calendar day was May 5. It’s now been 259 days since then – a city record for not receiving at least one-tenth of an inch. of the rain. The city’s previous record was from Feb. 25–Nov. 3, 2008, when there was a record 253 consecutive days without a tenth of rain.
Downtown LA has only received 0.16 inches of rain since the water year began on Oct. 1. That’s only 3% of the average for this point in the water year, which is 5.99 inches. The average annual rainfall for the city is 14.25 inches.
Magistrates urged people to take measures now to reduce the risk of any kind of ignition or spread of fire, and prepare for strong and dangerous winds.
Residents should secure loose outdoor items such as patio furniture; adjust travel times between Monday night and Tuesday morning; charging electronics, flashlights and battery packs; fill fuel tanks for emergency generators; and move cars away from trees that appear fragile, Schoenfeld said.
Experts warn people to keep certain items within five meters of your home, such as outdoor furniture, umbrellas, trash and recycling bins. Getting rid of all weeds dead or alive is also a good idea, as is clearing gutters, roofs, decks, porches and steps of flammable materials such as leaves and needles.
“And when the wind starts, move away from trees, windows. And use extreme caution, too, with anything that could start a fire,” Schoenfeld said.
The new warning is an unprecedented fifth “extremely dangerous” red flag warning upgrade in one season by the weather service’s Oxnard office, which covers Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.
The first three times the bureau issued that warning were followed by wildfires that burned and spread quickly — the 19,904-acre Mountain Fire in Ventura County in November, which destroyed 243 structures; the 4,037-acre Franklin fire, which quickly spread to Malibu and destroyed 20 buildings in December; and this month’s Palisades and Eaton fires, among the most destructive and deadly fires in modern California history.
“This is the kingdom of the spirit [this week] it’s like a mountain fire in a lot of ways,” said Schoenfeld. But, he added, “it doesn’t go deep into the San Gabriel Valley, like the Jan. 7,” which helped ignite the Eaton fire quickly and destroyed the bulk of the unincorporated Altadena.
The weather service in Oxnard began issuing “extremely hazardous weather” warnings only in 2020. It sent two that year, in October and December. No more releases until November 2024.
(National Weather Service)
The weather service has decided to start using the tag line “extremely dangerous conditions” as a way to sound a high-alarm type of red flag warning.
The need for, basically, a red warning alert became clear after the devastating Thomas fire of 2017, which destroyed 1,063 buildings in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties; and the 2018 Woolsey fire, which destroyed 1,643 structures in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Both were among the most destructive fires in Southern California’s modern history.
Adding that message seems, at times, to work in the past. In late 2019, the weather service office in charge of the Bay Area referred to a red flag warning as potentially “historic” and “extreme,” which received a lot of attention. At the time, firefighters were citing the unusual combination of firefighting resources as key to keeping the fires in Northern and Southern California from getting worse.
As of Sunday, the Palisades fire, which has burned more than 23,700 acres and killed at least 10 people, was 56% contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The Eaton fire, which has burned more than 14,000 acres and killed at least 17 people, was 81 percent contained.
There are still 27 people reported missing: 20 from the Eaton fire and seven from the Palisades, according to the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department.
Times staff writer Connor Sheets contributed to this report.
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