An analysis of the graduation of the entering class of 2016 finds persistence to be a key factor in timely graduation among applicants and degree seekers.
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More than 36 million Americans have earned some college credits but haven’t graduated, showing gaps in higher education that leave students with only a partial degree and student loan debt.
Colleges and universities have invested in their retention strategies to improve student graduation rates and the cost of education by helping them complete degrees on time.
Recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center found that first-year academic achievement and first-to-sophomore persistence were significant predictors of a student’s ability to graduate and do so quickly.
Research says
The 2023 Student Voice Survey from Within Higher Ed and College Pulse found 69 percent of undergraduate survey respondents (n=3,004) expected to graduate in the average two or four years.
13% of the respondents said that they did not expect to graduate on time because they had planned or expected it to take a long time and 3% said that it was because of what they believed to be the institution’s problem.
Background: The federal government tracks graduation rates for first-time degree seekers based on six- and eight-year completions, but a typical associate or degree program can be classified as two or four years, respectively.
The six-year graduation rate for all college students entering two-year and four-year institutions in 2017 was 62.2%, with a gap of 34 percentage points between four-year private nonprofit institutions (77.5 percent) and two-year community colleges. (43.4 percent).
Completion on time is associated with lower financial burdens, due to longer enrollment and improved socio-economic development of students, as well as improved institutional facilities. Individual challenges and institutional policies can impact student progress over time, including academic challenges, personal struggles, insecurity of basic needs, financial instability, transfer barriers, unclear degree requirements, developmental education, enrollment policies or inadequate advising.
The study examines indicators of early success, including first-year GPA, credit completion rates, second-year enrollment and credits earned, and how these indicators predict completion across credentials and demographic profiles.
How to do it
On-time graduation, as defined by the report’s authors, is “a student who has obtained the credentials they initially sought, at any institution, within a specified period of time,” allowing for variation between associate, degree or graduate programs.
The researchers examined four factors: first-year credit completion rate, first-year credits earned, first-year grade point average and second-year enrollment. Survey participants (n=307,500) included freshmen, full-time freshmen enrolled in the fall of 2016 in bachelor’s (63 percent) or associate degree (37 percent) programs. The data is taken from the Postsecondary Data Partnership by the National Student Clearinghouse and is therefore not representative of the national population.
Findings: The researchers found that most of those who completed on time showed indicators of early success, including having a large number of credits earned, above a 3.3 GPA and re-enrolling for a second year. In addition, “Students who graduated on time had higher early indicators than those who did not complete, regardless of race, gender, age of entry, or field of study major,” according to the report.
Even students who took 150 percent (three years for a degree, six years for a bachelor’s) or 200 percent (four and eight years, respectively) of the time expected to complete had higher success rates than peers who did not complete.
In their first year, students who completed the certificate had higher GPAs, earned more credits and completed an average of 90 percent of the credits they attempted. They were also more likely to enroll in their second year—even if at another institution—compared to their peers who did not graduate on time.
Persistence from the first to the second year was a different graduation factor for two-year or certificate students; students who did not graduate enrolled in their second year at a rate 32 percent lower than those who completed. This was the most important achievement indicator, followed by first-year credits earned.
For bachelor’s degree seekers, a student’s first-year GPA was the most important early success indicator, followed by second-year retention.
A student’s field of study may also be related to their graduation time, when bachelor’s degree seekers majoring in social science or business are likely to complete and include degree seekers pursuing a STEM or social science degree are likely to complete. However, the researchers used the study program as a demographic, so analysis cannot be done on program requirements or courses that may help or hinder students’ graduation.
“These findings underscore the need for targeted, evidence-based interventions that prioritize early academic achievement, retention supports, and address program-specific challenges to improve graduation outcomes,” according to the report.
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