As of Tuesday morning, reliable forecasters were saying that Tropical Storm Helene in southern Cuba was on track to strengthen in the coming days, and likely hit Florida as a hurricane on Thursday.
Now is the time when we all like to watch cones and “spaghetti models” that show possible paths as a storm approaches, but from the jump: Please be careful how you use this which can be misunderstood information.
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Why is it impossible to predict the weather far into the future
NOAA cone image of Hurricane Helene
According to NOAA, as of 11 a.m. ET, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for most of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, the Cuban state of Pinar del Rio, the Florida highway that includes “Englewood to Indian Pass,” and the most populated area. . Tampa Bay. In image form, that looks like this:
NOAA cone image of Tropical Storm Helene showing threats to parts of Mexico, Cuba, and Florida.
Credit: NOAA
As a reminder, NOAA’s cone diagram is a reliable approximation of path widths the center of the storm may take. The cone is not – as it may seem at first glance – a forecast of an ever-increasing storm that blows inland in the United States. Strong winds and severe storms can, and likely will, occur outside the cone, and some areas within the cone will emerge from the storm completely unscathed.
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If you’re reading this, and it turns out you end up in the path of a storm, it’s going to be hard to miss the evacuation order. At this stage, instead of guessing whether your area will experience strong winds and storm surge from a direct hit by the storm, in many areas it would be wise to heed NOAA’s broad warning:
Heavy rain may cause localized flooding in parts of Florida, with flash and possible urban flooding across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday.
Helene’s spaghetti model
Spaghetti models, such as NOAA’s cone model, visualize statistical probabilities.
Unlike the cone, they present real paths predicted by a set of computer models, all spilling like spaghetti from Strega Nona’s magical pasta pot. And like the cone, the spaghetti model can be tricky. All methods of the spaghetti model are both speculative and contradictory. A real storm will follow only one path, and it is almost certain that none of the paths predicted in this splatter of noodles will predict well.
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The model above, posted online by Baton Rouge meteorologist Malcolm Byron appears to show about 20 tracks, with an ominous spaghetti strip to the east that includes Tampa Bay directly. Such products should be taken with caution by the public.
Predicted external events often do not materialize. But the events also do not match up to the predictions. Although advanced climate models can be incredibly accurate, climate is emergent, and its exact system is, and will always be, unpredictable due to the myriad of natural and man-made factors that influence the results.
