Devastating wildfires continued to burn across the Los Angeles metro area on Friday, prompting mandatory evacuations and school closures across the region. Next week promises little chance of relief; conditions will remain favorable for both the growth of existing wildfires and the outbreak of new flames, as strong winds persist amid unusually dry conditions.
Officials have reported five large blazes in the Los Angeles area since Friday morning. The Palisades Fire in Pacific Palisades and Malibu has consumed more than 20,000 acres, while the Eaton Fire in Altadena has grown to more than 10,000 acres. At least 10,000 buildings are thought to have been destroyed across Los Angeles, and 10 people have died.
Ideal fire weather requires dry vegetation, low humidity, and strong winds. The combination of these ingredients allows fires to start easily and spread quickly; it was this dangerous mix that allowed the Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire to spread beyond any control group earlier in the week.
Firefighters have been able to start controlling the fires, with the help of reinforcements from outside the province, water has been put into the hydrants and refilled, and the wind speed has decreased. (As well as helping the fires spread quickly, Santa Ana’s seasonally high winds earlier in the week sometimes prevented firefighting planes from working to control the flames with water and fire retardant chemicals.) The bad news is that those winds may be here now. is about to start again—and in all other cases, conditions won’t be in the firefighters’ favor anytime soon.
What’s Next for Climate
The Storm Prediction Center, the National Weather Service’s agency tasked with issuing fire weather forecasts, says the fire risk will remain high across Los Angeles through this weekend.
We could see two more central Santa Ana wind events in the coming days—one early Sunday morning, and another possible Tuesday. These storms can encourage the spread of existing fires and the burning of other flames.
The Santa Ana wind event occurs when there is a pressure difference between the Great Basin—the expanse of land in Nevada and Utah—and coastal communities in Los Angeles.
Meteorologists often use the air pressure difference between Las Vegas and Los Angeles to predict these winds. Strong pressure differences create strong winds that rush toward the coast, feeding existing wildfires. This is what they predict we may see again in the coming days.
Vegetation will also continue to be incredibly dry across the region. It’s the middle of the rainy season in southern California right now—but rain is nowhere to be found. After seeing its third wettest February on record last year, Los Angeles International Airport reported only 0.03 inches of rain since the start of last summer.
Despite the fact that mid-January is prime time for Los Angeles’ rainy season, there is very little hope of any significant rain in the next week and a half. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday that we have officially entered La Niña, a pattern of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Atmospheric changes in response to La Niña can force the jet stream to go north over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, fleeing hurricanes to the West Coast of Canada instead of the US in the west, states that are hungry like California for rain.
As expected, the storm track across the Pacific Ocean will remain high near the Gulf of Alaska during January, providing few chances for rain to reach as far south as Southern California.
Forecasters expect a weak La Niña to last through the end of winter, with a good chance the pattern will fade by spring. Unfortunately, this time may coincide with the start of Southern California’s dry season.
That doesn’t mean we may not see a chance of rain in the coming months. However, little or no rain during at least mid-January will keep vegetation incredibly dry across the region. The continued risk of new fires and further fire growth will depend on the outbreak of low humidity coupled with strong winds—and any additional Santa Ana wind events could be dangerous in the coming weeks.
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