AIran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday, President Biden’s hopes of ending the war in Gaza before leaving office and holding a wider regional war in the Middle East appear dimmer than ever. This attack from Iran came after Israel increased its war against Iran’s proxies in the region, launching a series of reckless attacks to disperse the leadership of Hezbollah on its northern border and hit Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen.
Now, Biden is caught between his promise to end the war in Gaza, and continuing to support Israel’s defense in the escalating conflict on the other side.
The President spent much of Tuesday in the Situation Room, a cramped, wooded command center in the West Wing, as American intelligence gathered that Iran was preparing a missile attack on Israel to avenge the death of Hassan Nasrallah. , the secretary general of Hezbollah.
Biden has ordered the US military to help Israel defend itself against Iran. When the Israelis tried to bomb the shelters, the Israeli and American forces managed to intercept nearly 200 rockets. “The attack appears to have been defeated and failed,” Biden told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. “Make no mistake, the United States supports Israel fully, fully.”
National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, described the attack as “a major escalation by Iran.” The increase is likely to continue. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Iran had “made a big mistake” and “will pay for it.”
Here are the events that led to Iran’s latest bombing campaign against Israel.
There is no ceasefire agreement in Gaza
Since the shocking massacre by Hamas in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed, the Biden administration has tried to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas that would bring back the dozens of hostages still being held in Gaza. But, so far, Hamas has refused to release the hostages and Israel has refused to withdraw its troops from Gaza, saying its military campaign will continue until it destroys Hamas’ ability to launch an attack on Gaza. Since last October, the number of dead in Gaza has exceeded 40,000, said health officials in the area.
While those talks were ongoing, Iran’s military force on Israel’s northern border, Hezbollah, continued to launch thousands of rockets from its bases in southern Lebanon into northern Israel, preventing some 60,000 Israelis from returning to their homes amid Hezbollah rocket fire.
Read more: Special: Netanyahu at War
The pager is attacking
For months, Israel was involved in escalating the war with Hezbollah. Then, within a period of days from September 17, Israel began blowing up thousands of pagers and walkie talkies used by Hezbollah’s leadership inside Lebanon, killing more than 40 people and essentially disrupting the terrorist group’s communications. Over the next several days, the Israeli Air Force dropped hundreds of bombs targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure and leadership inside Lebanon.
Last Thursday, as the United Nations General Assembly convened in New York, the United States and France urged Israel to sign an agreement to end the 21-day conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel rejected this plan. The next day, shortly after Netanyahu delivered a fiery speech at the UN, an Israeli airstrike hit Hezbollah’s underground headquarters in the Dahieh neighborhood of southern Beirut, killing Nasrallah, the group’s leader.
What Israel could do next
Iran previously attacked Israel directly in April with multiple missiles and explosive drones. The Israelis launched an attack inside Iran, hitting a radar system near where Iran is developing its nuclear weapons program. It was a sign to Tehran that Israel can avoid Iran’s missile defenses and knows the critical target areas.
Both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have signed their commitment to helping Israel defend itself. Israel will continue to rely on US weapons to deter an Iranian attack. Israeli officials are frustrated that the U.S. has not done more to curb Iran’s cooperation with Russia in weapons development in recent years and are pushing U.S. officials to work harder to curb Iran’s black market oil exports that bring in more money for Tehran.
As Israel showed with the pager attack in September, it has new ways to continue the offense. Israel is likely to demonstrate other new capabilities, including cyber weapons, in the coming weeks and months, said Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a conservative think tank in Washington, DC. “Israel is likely to increase the pressure, increase the price before it comes down,” Schanzer said.
Biden still wants to bring the war to an end through diplomacy. “I think the chances of that are very slim,” Schanzer said.
Asked by reporters in the White House Roosevelt Room on Tuesday what Iran’s response to its missile attack on Israel would be, Biden said, “That remains to be seen.”
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