US space officials do not like to talk about the dangers to astronauts flying on the aging International Space Station, whose components are now more than a quarter of a century old.
However, a new report confirms that NASA managers responsible for the operation of the space station are very concerned about a small part of the Russian station, mainly the tunnel that connects the main module to the docking port, which is leaking.
Russian and US officials know that this small PrK module, located between the Progress spacecraft airlock and the Express yourself module, has been leaking since September 2019. A new report, published Thursday by NASA’s inspector general, provides information not previously released by the space agency that underscores the magnitude of the problem.
New Details on Leaks
For example, in February of this year NASA identified an increase in the leakage rate from less than 1 pound of atmosphere per day to 2.4 pounds per day, and in April this rate increased to 3.7 pounds per day. Despite years of investigation, neither Russian nor US officials have identified the cause of the leak.
“Although the cause of the leak is unknown, both agencies have focused on internal and external welding,” said the report, signed by Deputy Inspector General George A. Scott.
The risk mitigation plan is to keep the hatch open Express yourself the module leading to the PrK tunnel is closed. Ultimately, if the leak gets worse, this hatch may need to be closed permanently, reducing the number of Russian docking ports on the space station from four to three.
Publicly, NASA has sought to minimize concerns about the crack issue because, so far, it has been confined to the PrK tunnel and has not spread to other parts of the station. However, Ars reported in June that the issue of cracking has reached the highest level of concern in the space agency’s 5×5 “risk matrix” to classify the likelihood and consequences of accidents in spaceflight operations. The Russian leak is now classified as a “5” both in terms of maximum probability and maximum effect.
At the time, NASA would not comment on, or confirm, the space agency’s concerns about the risk matrix estimate. However, a new report confirms the agency’s concerns.
“In May and June 2024, ISS Program officials and Roscosmos officials met to discuss concerns about the increased leak rate,” the inspector’s report said. “The ISS program then raised the risk of a leak in the Service Module Transfer Tunnel to the highest risk level in its risk management system. According to NASA, Roscosmos is confident that it will be able to monitor and close the hatch in the Service Module before the leak. However, NASA and Roscosmos have not yet reached an agreement on the point at which the leak rate cannot be measured.
An Uncertain Future on Earth’s Low Trail
The report comes as NASA considers the future of the space station. The US space agency and Russia have an agreement to continue flying the station until 2028, and NASA would like to extend the operation to 2030. NASA expected to agree to this extension more than a year ago, but so far no agreement has been finalized.
When the station reaches the end of its life, NASA intends to transition its operations in low Earth orbit to independent space stations, and has funded initial development work by Axiom Space, Northrop Grumman, Blue Origin, and Voyager Space. Northrop has pulled out of the competition—it decided it wasn’t going to be a profitable business. There is general uncertainty as to whether any independent channel operators will be ready by 2030.
Another possible option for NASA is to extend the life of the space station beyond 2030, but this will require a lot of work to ensure that the space station structure remains operational and another extension agreement with Russia. The US’s partnership with that country has been severely strained by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Extending the ISS past 2030 will require significant funding to operate and maintain the station, acceptance of increased risks from its aging components and structures, and assurance of continued support from NASA’s international partners,” said the new report. “Other concerns are the likelihood that NASA will continue to face low or reduced budgets, inflation and supply chain challenges.”
This story appeared first Ars Technica.
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