After several years of decline, the population of California will grow by almost a quarter of a million by the year 2024, according to the US Census Bureau, a rebound that returns the Golden State almost back to its pre-pandemic numbers.
The numbers are not all correct. California has experienced a slower growth rate than the rest of the country, especially large states in the fast-growing South. It also experienced the nation’s largest loss of domestic migration.
But experts say the new statistics for Californians represent a significant change.
“The big picture is that California is growing again,” said Hans Johnson, executive director of the Public Policy Institute of California. “It shows that California has a healthy growth rate… The number of people coming to the state from abroad has increased, the number of people traveling to other states has decreased. There is still a large flow in some states, but it is not as large as it used to be. “
While California’s population gained 232,570 people from July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024, it represents the largest population increase in the West of the nation, lagging behind Texas, which increased its population by 562,941, and Florida, which grew by 467,347 people. .
California’s population growth of 0.6% also fell short of the national average (0.9%) and was outpaced by the District of Columbia (2.2%), Florida (2%) and Texas (1.8%).
During the COVID-19 pandemic, California’s population declined after a decade of strong growth. Having reached the highest level of population in 2020 with more than 39.5 million people, the state lost about 1% of its population on July 1, 2021, as it introduced many restrictions, including the closure of offices, shops, restaurants. and schools.
California is still the most populous state in the country with 39,431,263 residents, more than Texas’ 31 million and Florida’s 23 million. But its total population remained 124,000 short of the 2020 peak.
California’s population decline has been taken by the right as a sign of the failure of liberal progressivism. GOP critics, such as Gov. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, presented California as a shrinking state, arguing that in recent years its residents fled to red states because California has become a center of high crime, unaffordable housing. , excessive regulation and wacky leftist ideology.
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office celebrated the Census Bureau’s estimate, released the same week the California Department of Finance released data that also showed the state’s population growth.
“People from all over the country and around the world come to the Golden State to pursue the California Dream and experience the success of the world’s fifth largest economy – strengthening local communities, the regional economy and the future of our country,” said Brendan Richards, a spokesman for the organization. Newsom.
California’s population growth is largely due to immigration and natural population growth (the result of total births minus deaths) – not domestic migration.
Census Bureau estimates showed California experienced the largest net in-migration loss — shedding 239,575 people — while Texas added 85,267.
The main driver of California’s population growth is people from outside the US: the state had the second largest gain in immigration, attracting 361,057 immigrants, behind Florida’s 411,322, but ahead of Texas’ 319,569.
California also experienced the country’s second-highest natural increase – births exceeding deaths – with a net gain of 110,466 people, just short of Texas’ 158,753.
Beyond the rhetoric of culture wars between red and green states, demographic shifts have the potential to reshape the country’s potential.
In 2021, new census data resulted in the state losing a congressional representative for the first time in its history, dropping from 53 to 52 seats in the House of Representatives. Last year, the Brennan Center for Justice predicted that the state was on track to lose four more congressional districts by 2030, leaving California with 48 House seats.
Michael Li, senior adviser at the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program, said Friday that new estimates from the Census Bureau showed there could be surprisingly little segregation by 2030 across the country. But if we assume that the population of the last two years is made up of the entire decade, he said, California was on the verge of losing three or four seats – and maybe even more, depending on how hard the administration of President Trump cracks down on immigrants.
“California’s population is heavily supported by immigrants,” Li said. “It has about 360,000 people coming in from outside the United States… With the new administration coming in, talking about deporting millions of people and possibly closing legal entry into the country, a lot can change.”
The Trump administration, Li said, may meet with the census. For example, adding a citizenship question may suppress participation and participation.
The Census Bureau estimates were released a day before the California Department of Finance released data Friday showing the state’s population grew by nearly 49,000 in the fiscal year ending July 1 to 39,172,742. The department’s average is much lower than the Census Bureau’s average of 232,570, mainly because the office shows a very high rate of immigration to California.
As a demographer who has been looking at population data for decades, Johnson said this year’s difference between the Census Bureau and the California Department of Finance estimates is surprising.
“The biggest difference is migration, and migration is hard to measure,” Johnson said. “We have procedures and administrative records, but sometimes people will, for example, adjust their status from some kind of temporary status to permanent status. Technically, that would be considered immigration, but not a new citizen. And then, of course, unauthorized or unauthorized immigration is difficult to measure. “
The California Department of Finance attributed the state’s growth to a combination of factors: legal immigration continues to rebound in the wake of the pandemic; greater internal migration and reduced emigration; a natural increase as the death rate declines from its epidemic peak.
Johnson said he did not expect conservatives to stop holding California as a symbol of national decline.
“There’s still a lot of people moving from California to other states — no doubt about it — so there’s probably some political hay to be made there,” Johnson said. “The reason for that is because the cost of living and housing is very high in California, which means people want to live here, because that’s a demand and supply consideration.”
During California’s boom with rapid population growth, Johnson said, the state often attracted people from across the country, as well as from abroad. But that hasn’t been the case for several decades.
Still, Johnson said, libertarians can argue against simple conservative narratives and provide a reality check.
“Why is California so expensive?” he said. “Another thing is that it has become very difficult to build houses here. But one of the reasons why it is difficult to build houses here is that land is expensive, and land is expensive because many people want to own land or houses in California.”
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