WSajeeb Wazed Joy’s mother got into hot water, she did what many of us do these days: she posted a message on the family’s WhatsApp group. But the problem in question was not a parking fine or a mysterious illness. Joy’s mother, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed, has been facing a popular uproar to force her extradition. The reason was the reintroduction of employment quotas for generations of heroes of the South Asian nation’s freedom struggle in 1971 led by Joy’s grandfather, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
“We were all surprised by the quota movement,” Joy tells TIME in her first US media interview since her mother’s ouster. “Actually, I said in the WhatsApp group, ‘30% quotas are too much; we have to reduce it to 5%.’ Then someone shouted, ‘Hey, we are the grandchildren of freedom fighters too.’ I jokingly replied, ‘That’s why I left 5%!’”
Ultimately, the quota issue was the spark that ignited the embers of public discontent with inequality and political oppression that erupted in the two weeks of July. After a violent attack on peaceful protesters that killed at least 1,000 people, Hasina’s last sight on earth was her arrest in a military helicopter as protesters were detained. and decorations, Hasina floated through the smoky sky to India, where she remains to this day, licking her wounds away from society.
“He is sad and frustrated at the state of affairs that all his hard work for the past 15 years is going to be undone,” said Joy, who runs an IT business in the US and was a respected adviser to her mother. in technical matters.
Back in Bangladesh, the reckoning continues. After 15 years of uninterrupted rule, almost all government institutions have been politicized by Hasina’s party, the Awami League, creating distrust in the military, judiciary, civil servants, and especially the security forces. The task of consolidating South Asia’s second-largest economy of more than 170 million people has fallen to a motley group of student leaders and military generals who eventually forced Hasina to resign.
They have installed Muhammad Yunus – a Nobel Peace Prize winner and social entrepreneur, who under Hasina faced hundreds of civil and criminal cases that he insisted were politically motivated and which have since been dismissed – to lead an interim government in new elections, which they say could take up to 18 years. months. Meanwhile, a six-pronged reform program is underway focusing on the electoral system, police management, judiciary, anti-corruption commission, public administration and the national constitution. “The purpose of this [reforms] it will be the implementation of a political system that is accountable against corruption, robbery, and genocide,” said Yunus in his televised speech on August 26. “If we lose this opportunity now, we will be defeated as a nation.”
The weeks since Hasina’s departure have been chaotic due to the absence of politics and security. The Awami League was removed from all levels of government and its members were arrested. Thousands of policemen have been condemned for retaliation (at least 44 policemen were killed.) Meanwhile, Khaleda Zia, the leader of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Hasina’s longtime foe, has been released from house arrest, and imprisoned. he was withdrawn from Bangladesh’s main Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami.
But the euphoria over Hasina’s exit has since turned into a debate over which case the country should take. On September 31, Transparency International Bangladesh labeled the government’s decision to dissolve the committee charged with revising the books as a “concerned and dangerous” deal with Islamic extremists. In response, leaders of the Hefazat-e-Islam representative group denounced such concerns as “fascist.”
It’s cold, dirty, and weird: all the hallmarks of true democracy, say reformers. Although the fact that no political party is part of the interim government means that the announcements of new elections will be very high. “This government is legitimate, it has public support, but it has no popular authority,” said Mubashar Hasan, a Bangladesh expert at the University of Oslo in Norway.
Indeed, reformers are in trouble. Making meaningful changes and getting the abusers to participate will take time, but a world without wheels with ordinary people struggling economically will soon run out of patience. Last week, the Asian Development Bank lowered its economic growth forecast for Bangladesh from 6.6% to 5.1% due to political unrest and recent floods.
If unrest and paralysis continue, many depressed people may look favorably on Hasina’s record. Bangladesh has been the fastest growing economy in the Asia-Pacific over the past decade, with GDP rising from $71 billion in 2006 to $460 billion in 2022 (even as inequality and political repression have increased in proportion). Ahead of the January elections, which the US condemned as illegal and unfair, BNP workers were hit with millions of lawsuits. Transparency International’s 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index ranked Bangladesh 147 out of 180 countries around the world—level with Iran and one place above Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
The fear of reformers is that the latter are fading into memory. Hasina’s return is “very real,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center. “If you look at the history of dynastic politics in South Asia, you will never get rid of ruling parties even if they appear to be low and out.”
Some observers are not so confident. After all, across Bangladeshi society, statues of Sheikh Mujib were toppled, posters of Hasina vandalized and replaced with obscene graffiti describing her as a dictator. “This is how Sheikh Hasina’s legacy is perceived by the youth,” said Mubashar.
Joy says “no decisions have been taken” about whether Hasina will return to run for office.
However, they all agree that not working in the interim government will greatly increase his chances. “There is no way for Sheikh Hasina and her party to play a prominent role in Bangladeshi politics for the next decade,” said Zillur Rahman, executive director of the Dhaka-based Center for Governance Studies and a talk show host. “This could change if the interim government fails miserably.”
Indeed, political elites are trying every trick in the book to block the reforms, said Shahidul Haque, a retired Bangladeshi army general, diplomat and defense lawyer. “They are trying to undermine this government,” he said. “And if there is no tangible progress, people will lose patience.”
Happiness depends on it. “If they want to rule the country for a year or 18 months, I actually believe that’s fine,” he said, pointing to today’s “lawlessness” with “crowds, protesters, basically eating crap.”
Indeed, Hasina’s downfall has given way to attacks on the police and minorities, although analysts say the level of bloodshed has been felt. “There are no criminals, and we have not seen recent attacks on a large scale,” said Meenakshi Ganguly, deputy Asia director of Human Rights Watch. “There is absolutely no violation of the law.”
Washington has emerged as a key player to ensure that remains the case. The ambiguous legitimacy of the interim government means that US support—as demonstrated by Yunus’ meeting with President Joe Biden at the White House late last month—is essential to maintaining the cooperation of institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank. “US support is a very important factor in the stability of the interim government,” said Haque.
However, if disability prevails for a long time many opportunities for a revised narrative may become entrenched. While admitting that her mother made mistakes during the ban, and not disputing the death toll, Joy insists that at least half of the killings were carried out by “terrorists” who may have been armed by a “foreign intelligence agency.”
Supporting evidence is scant—”There are tons of videos showing that the police used excessive force and had orders to break up the protest,” Ganguly said—though in the age of social media it’s shockingly easy for “alternative facts” to spread.
However, Awami League’s main obstacle is how much support it still has among its members. After the July riots, almost all of the party’s top leaders fled the country, leaving their ranks and files to be retaliated against. “There is a deep sense among the former ruling party who believe that the way Sheikh Hasina left was a total betrayal of them,” Mubashar said.
There is also a disagreement over the alleged looting of the government fund. According to a local media analysis of data by the US-based research institute, Global Financial Integrity, about $150 billion was taken from the country by influential people and businesses during the last 15 years of Hasina’s rule. On Monday, the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit froze Joy’s local accounts. He denies all allegations of corruption. “Show us where the money is,” he said. “It’s easy to sue people.”
The question is whether the Awami League muster the mudslinging and necessary checks and balances to become a legitimate political force again. “The only way forward is for the Awami League to try to admit its mistakes and start building itself as a democratic party to contest elections,” said Ganguly.
Others have called for the Awami League to be banned altogether if its leaders are found guilty of “murder” and “crimes against humanity.” This idea makes Joy laugh. “How can you stop the oldest and largest political party in Bangladesh?” you prune. “It is legally impossible.” Even reformists and opposition parties are not convinced that a total ban on a party that once enjoyed massive grassroots support would serve the country’s interest. Ultimately, the goal is to break the same cycle of revenge politics that has been going on for decades in Bangladesh. Whether that can be achieved with the participation of the notorious and vengeful Hasina is a big question.
“The biggest weakness of the Awami League is its personality cult centered on Sheikh Hasina,” said Rahman, director of a Bangladeshi think tank. “They can’t think of another way for Sheikh Mujib’s daughter.”
Even his grandson? “Unless he can establish himself from the ground up as a leader of the people in Bangladesh, he may not have a political future,” Rahman said. Mubashar, a scholar based in Oslo, agrees: “He has no respect and closeness among the youth. And demographics are important.”
Joy has not yet decided whether she will enter the race. “I have never had any political ambitions,” he said with a shrug. “But given the current situation, who knows? I have not made any decision.” Maybe another WhatsApp family chat.
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