As US Vote Approaches, Ukraine’s Allies Worry About What Comes Next

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(Bloomberg) — Russia continues to move slowly, moving forward across the front line in Ukraine as the U.S. election nears, which will have a major impact on Kyiv’s ability to fight back.

Moscow’s military will still be able to gain tactical advantage on the battlefield despite the new record losses, said western officials who declined to be named while discussing sensitive details. Russia now accounts for 1,200 casualties in Ukraine every day, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Monday.

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Russian troops continue to advance in the eastern region of Donetsk, which remains a strategic target for Moscow. The fortress city of Vuhledar has just fallen to Moscow, while the transport hub of Pokrovsk is increasingly vulnerable. Ukrainian forces are also losing ground in the Kursk region of Russia, where they launched a surprise attack in August.

After more than 1,000 days of brutal fighting, the US election marks a watershed moment for Ukraine. Officials in Kyiv and Europe are concerned that a Donald Trump victory could see Ukraine forced into a bitter deal that would allow President Vladimir Putin to consolidate his power in the country.

Although President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has vowed to continue fighting, the harsh reality is that his exhausted troops are heavily reliant on US aid. Some of Ukraine’s allies have started talking about how the war might end.

If Trump, who has said the conflict will be “resolved” before he takes office, is elected and makes good on his threats to cut off support, Ukraine’s options will be severely limited. But even if Kamala Harris wins, the US will find it difficult to get much financial support through Congress, said Western officials who declined to be identified discussing sensitive issues.

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Kyiv has already had a taste of what a loosening of support might look like. Conflicts in the US delayed the approval of a multi-billion dollar aid package for six months, which has hit Ukraine with no ammunition or power. Moscow continues to attack the country’s energy and critical infrastructure, which Kyiv worries will cause massive blackouts and heating disruptions as the cold season begins.

Along with air dominance, Russia maintains significant ammunition advantages over Ukraine. Its workforce outnumbers Kyiv’s by a factor of three to one, possibly hiring as many as 30,000 new people a month, one western official said. Moscow has also bolstered its forces with thousands of North Korean troops, according to Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence.

US officials are concerned, but less optimistic than other allies about the state of play on the battlefield. Senior US officials said in early October that they expected Ukraine to be able to hold on to the Russian Kursk region for at least a few months, saying that Kyiv saw a steady supply of ammunition.

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That might be enough for Ukraine to hold the line, but it might not be enough to win.

Zelenskiy recently launched his so-called victory plan, which he says is aimed at forcing the Kremlin to negotiate and avoid stalling the conflict on the current front line. He said Ukraine was working to get more military aid and permission to use western-made weapons to strike inside Russia, but added that much depended on the outcome of the US election.

‘It May Not Work Anymore’

Kyiv is looking for improved air defenses and support from neighboring countries to shoot down Russian missiles and drones approaching its airspace, as well as the ability to reduce Russian offensive forces in occupied territories.

Ukraine needs more equipment for its brigades; Germany and France intend to supply at least two machines, Zelenskiy said. Kyiv is also seeking help in developing its long-range strike capabilities, for which the US has already pledged $1.6 billion.

As part of this plan, Ukraine will also seek to continue development in the Kursk region with the aim of influencing public opinion in Russia, people familiar with the matter said.

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“Russia will maintain this initiative, not counting losses, and will use its local successes on the battlefield to pressure Ukraine internally and pressure its partners,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at Kyiv’s National Institute for Security Studies.

“The model under which the West provides ammunition and Ukraine provides labor may no longer work,” Bielieskov said. “Although the US has always said that they will not have American troops on the ground, we are approaching a time when such a need may arise from our allies because the resources of Ukraine are unlimited.”

—Courtesy of Andrea Palasciano and Natalia Drozdiak.

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