When the sun goes down Wednesday night, LA’s attention will turn briefly as it does every day before Thanksgiving to the 405 Freeway.
TV news helicopters will fly overhead, reminding the world that perhaps there are no cars worse than the 405.
For more than a decade, photos and videos of the infamous gridlock from LAX to the Westside have shown the unofficial start of the holiday weekend and poetic justice to snow-covered East Coasters envious of our warm Thanksgiving al fresco.
But Caltrans traffic data reviewed by The Times shows Wednesday evening is not the worst time for traffic.
Although speeds are below average on the day before Thanksgiving, Tuesday is the worst day for traffic on that highway, according to a Times analysis of Caltrans data. And the data shows Monday is even worse than Wednesday.
The chart below plots the average speed in the Los Angeles area of the 405 in both directions during the last five weeks of Thanksgiving.
Although overall traffic was worst in 2019 before improving in 2020 due to the pandemic, speeds were below average — 53.7 mph last year on the 405 — every Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving for the past five years.
These Tuesday-Wednesday crashes happen all over the country, said Marie Montgomery, a spokeswoman for the Auto Club of Southern California, “and then back in town Sunday afternoon and evening can be busy as well.”
Although Thanksgiving Eve was the worst for two decades of traffic tracking, “it started to pick up on Tuesday,” he said.
As Wednesday’s traffic gets worse, “people try to jump ahead of the holiday,” he thought.
Due to less traffic on the way to work as people take time off from work and schools close, mornings provide an opportunity to beat the rush, Montgomery said.
A Times analysis of 405 shows that the Tuesday before Thanksgiving in 2019 was the worst day on record: Traffic averaged 41.3 mph all day.
Last year, the number was higher, about 48 mph on Tuesday and 49 mph on Wednesday.
A closer look at the data reveals that the afternoon rush hour on those two days was the worst time to drive the 405, and it’s a safe bet it will be again this year.
During Thanksgiving week of 2023, the morning traffic peak — around 8 a.m. — was equally bad on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before dropping off on Thursday and Friday.
However, the afternoon peak was worse on Tuesday than on other days: cars crawled at 34 mph from 5 to 6 p.m.
Holiday traffic increases along the 405 freeway on Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in Los Angeles.
(Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times)
“Caltrans advises motorists to use extra caution as a record number of Southern California residents are expected to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday,” the statement said in a statement.
In Southern California, the Automobile Club of Southern California expects about 6.6 million travelers, a 2.8% increase from last year and a record level. 5.7 million are expected to travel by car, with wet weather on the horizon to make roads slower and more dangerous, Caltrans said.
Those in the Los Angeles area who must drive this week would do well to drive during off-peak hours or wait until Thursday. However, family members may be willing to suffer through an apocalyptic 405 to celebrate, if past data is any indication.
Times staff writer Shelby Grad contributed to this report.
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