The Trump camp is confident of early voting, while black leaders say Harris is struggling
At a time when we are all obsessed with conflicting polls and statistical relationships, Donald Trump’s campaign is unusually confident.
Kamala Harris’ career also sees reason for optimism, with news that late adopters are breaking her path by more than 10%. But he still pretends to be a lowly person. His “SNL” appearance doesn’t change that; and Trump doesn’t say that RFK’s plan to remove fluoride from water, a major public health improvement, “sounds good to me.”
Most of the media, publicly or privately, believe that Trump will win, even as Trump’s opponents are asking their supporters to vote for the VP – like MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace asking her former boss George W. Bush to publicly support Harris.
The climax of the campaign appears to be built on a widening gender gap—with Kamala doing better among women and Trump better among men.
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Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are on the edge of the picture on Election Day — though one camp is clearly higher than the other. (AP)
The view from the Trump camp is that the registration numbers favor Republicans, based on mail-in voting, in the swing states that will decide the race. Almost half of the country has already voted.
Take the important commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% advantage, and that is now down to 3 points.
In addition, only 39% of Democrats who voted there so far are men, compared to 49% among Republicans.
Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, from MSNBC, says Pennsylvania voters are more Republican, and more male, than in the past.
Harris needs more people in Philadelphia to carry the state, and many news reports say he is still struggling to win over some Black men.
In Wisconsin, a poll from Trump World says that in-person voting (which tends to favor the former president) is outpacing mail-in voting (which favors the Democratic Alliance). Trump’s strength is among male, white and rural voters. So, as in Philly’s case, Harris must do well in Milwaukee and Madison to take over.
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Michigan, Rep. Debbie Dingell just told me it’s a mystery, it’s still a mystery, because it doesn’t track group registration. So it’s a football game where you can open up how well Harris is doing in Detroit.
The Trump camp sees similar gains in states like Georgia and North Carolina, where public polls are close but could be a major challenge for Harris to win. The election actually opens three Blue Wall districts.
Maybe Harris should have picked Josh Shapiro?
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., Sunday, Nov. 3. The Trump campaign appears to be hoping for a win based on early voting that trumps mail-in ballots — which skew heavily Democratic — in mind. locations. (AP/Matt Rourke)
In one key case after another, local Black leaders are quoted on the record as saying they are concerned about warning signs in their community:
Politico: “The city of Milwaukee trails the rest of the state by nearly 7 percent in both its mail-in return rate and the number of registered voters. It’s upping the ante with urban and suburban voters to win over Wisconsin’s rural counties.”
Capital B, Atlanta: Black voter turnout in Georgia “dropped from over 29 percent” on the first day of early voting “to about 25 percent…That’s bad news for Harris…
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“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats who want a guaranteed victory in Georgia’s statewide office races usually need to hit 30 percent of the black vote.”
Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, black voters cast 207,000 fewer votes than four years ago — a drop of nearly 40 percent.”
“I’m worried about voting in Detroit. I think it’s true,” Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, told ABC.
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after delivering remarks at a service at the Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Christ, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, Detroit. Harris’ former replacement Jamal Simmons told ABC he was “concerned about the influx” of people in the Motor City. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
A sunny view is provided by this Politico piece, which states that public opinion polls appear to lack support for Harris.
The narrative that “shy Trump voters” — who don’t want to tell voters who they support — is a thing of the past, given the aggressive nature of his campaign.
Instead, many of Harris’ “forgotten” voters missed the ballot, especially Republicans who were frustrated with their party: Nikki Haley voters.
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Citing a national poll, Politico says 66% of those who voted for Haley in the primaries supported Trump in 2016, down from 59% four years ago and about 45% this time. “Currently, their support for the Democratic presidential nominee has tripled from only 13 percent who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent who indicated an intention to vote for Kamala Harris.”
I say to them: Who knows?
It is now before tomorrow’s election that voters analyze the ballots to find out which ones are absent. And – here’s the thing – it all depends on the output. Without raising billions of dollars, if some of Harris’s supporters stay home, that sinks his position.
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The odds favored by the Trump team depend largely on party registration, not polls that have missed the mark in the past two cycles.
That explains why the former president is so confident, as he asks his advisers if they really believe he will win.
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