Tthe winner of the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday.
This title was given to US presidents Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter, activists Wangari Maathai and Malala Yousafzai—who won in 2014 alongside Kailash Satyarthi for their work “against the oppression of children and young people and the right of all children to education”—and organizations such as Doctors Without Borders and the World Food Program.
The award is chosen by a five-person committee made up of Norwegians, which this year includes Norway’s Minister of Education Kristin Clemet, politician Jørgen Watne Frydnes and scholar Asle Toje, among others. Appointments can only be made by a select group of qualified people, including cabinet members, heads of state, university professors, previous Nobel Peace Prize winners, etc.
Last year, this award was given to human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, who is currently in prison, for her work against the oppression of women in Iran.
The Nobel Institute received 286 names this year—89 of which are organizations. In comparison, there were 351 submissions for the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize.
Information about potential winners remains tight, as a given year’s nominees may not be revealed until half a decade later. “Because certain names appear in advance predictions of who will be awarded any prize of the year, these may be mere guesses or information disclosed by a person or persons after the nomination,” the Nobel Prize website said.
Here is a list of potential Nobel Peace Prize winners based on odds from betting site Nicerodds.co.uk and an annual shortlist created by Henrik Urdal, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), although the winner may not have been successful. any short list.
OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
Amid growing dictatorships, organizations such as the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, work to promote democratic elections throughout Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia and North America.
“Democracy is being voted on this year as more than half of the people in the world live in a country that is going to the polls, although it is not only governed by democracy,” Urdal said in a press release. “Since elections are the foundation of democracy, election observers play an important role in shaping opinions about the legitimacy of electoral processes. The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to election observers sends a strong message about the importance of free and fair elections, and their role in peace and stability.” The organization oversees elections in 57 countries.
Emergency response rooms in Sudan
Sudan is facing one of the “worst humanitarian crises in the world,” as hundreds of thousands of people fleeing the country settle in border camps facing starvation, disease, and violence, and another 10 million have fled their homes. In response to the growing need, volunteers started emergency response rooms (ERRS) that deal with tasks such as repairing power lines, and providing medical aid, food, water, and human protection, according to the UN “As 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of its establishment. the revised Geneva Conventions, which were developed to protect civilians in times of war, awarding this year’s Peace Prize to a humanitarian aid system such as Emergency Response Rooms will highlight the critical importance of providing life-saving assistance in times of conflict,” said Urdal.
International Court of Justice
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is a judicial body of the United Nations that resolves international disputes between member states. The court has been involved in disputes such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and earlier this year it accused Israel of killing Palestinians. In January, the ICJ ordered Israel to “take all measures within its power” to stop such actions in Gaza. It also found that Israel had an “illegal presence” in Palestinian territory, and advised Israel to “immediately cease all new settlement activities, and evict all settlers from the occupied Palestinian Territory,” in a July advisory opinion.
More than 41,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, since the Israel-Hamas War began last year when Hamas took more than 200 hostages and killed 1,200 people on October 7, 2023.
UNRWA and Philippe Lazzarini
Since 1949, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has helped refugees receive health care, education, and provided emergency response support in times of conflict. The organization, led by Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, assists Palestinian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.
UNRWA has also been working to respond to Israeli bombings in Lebanon, opening emergency shelters to help refugees. About 2,000 people have died in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.
In January, it was alleged that UNRWA staff were involved in the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. of UNRWA’s August press release. Those workers were fired, but the US cut funding to UNRWA.
UNESCO and the Council of Europe
The UN’s Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) works to increase peace and security by promoting international dialogue and cooperation between member countries in fields such as education, science, and culture. The organization’s work took place during World War II, as leaders looked for a way to restore their “educational values when peace was restored,” according to the UNESCO website.
The Council of Europe, “which was founded on the idea that understanding the past is essential to building a shared future,” also focuses on history education.
“UNESCO emphasizes the importance of understanding history in a global context and developing regional perspectives, which is complimentary,” said Urdal. “The Nobel Peace Prize for promoting peace through history education will fit well with Alfred Nobel’s call for ‘relationships between nations’.
Volodymyr Zelensky
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is one of the main contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize, according to a UK betting site. The country’s leader has been a tough face during Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine that began in 2022. Urdal previously told TIME, however, that it was unlikely the Nobel Peace Prize would be awarded to someone in the middle of a war.
Zelensky was chosen as TIME’s Person of the Year in 2022.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Belarusian politician Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who is challenging Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko for the presidency in 2020, was also ranked high on the UK betting site. Tsikhanouskaya currently lives in exile because of her work challenging the existing regime, but she continues to meet with international leaders, recently meeting with Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide to discuss the release of political prisoners, Belarusian migration issues, and closing impunity loopholes.
Belarusian human rights lawyer Ales Bialiatski won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize, a year when Tsikhanouskaya was among the favorites to win.
Ilham Tohti
This year marks ten years since human rights activist Ilham Tohti was imprisoned in China for his advocacy of the Uyghurs. “When Ilham Tohti encouraged cooperation and peaceful coexistence between China’s Uyghur and Han communities, the Chinese government responded with repression and arrests. “His 10-year imprisonment is another disgrace in China’s troubled human rights history,” said Agnes Callamard, Secretary General of Amnesty International, in a September press release. Tohti has been outspoken about China’s racism, crimes against humanity, and genocide against the Uyghurs and other minority groups.
If he wins, he will join five other Nobel Peace Prize winners who won the award while in prison, including last year’s winners.
Greta Thunberg
Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg sparked a global conversation about climate change when she organized a “Climate School Strike” outside the Swedish parliament in 2018. This young activist continues to be involved in the movement, until he was arrested in Brussels for protesting against fossil fuel subsidies on Oct. . 5. Since 2023 was the hottest year on record, and devastating natural disasters, such as hurricanes, are becoming more dangerous due to climate change, the topic remains fresh in people’s minds.
The climate activist has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize every year from 2019 to 2023, according to the BBC.
Thunberg was TIME’s 2019 Person of the Year, the youngest recipient.
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