Freshman enrollment did not decline this fall, as previously reported in the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s annual enrollment report in October. On Monday, the NSC acknowledged that a methodological error led to a gross misrepresentation of first-year enrollment trends, and that first-year enrollment appears to have increased.
An October report showed that first-year enrollment fell by 5 percent, in what would have been the biggest drop since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic—and appeared to confirm fears that the rollout of a new aid formula last year would reduce access to college. Within Higher Ed That data was reported in many articles, and featured prominently in major news outlets such as The New York Times again The Washington Post.
According to the cleaning house, this mistake was not made by the way, it was made by wrongly naming many first-year students as secondary school students who studied twice. This also led to artificially inflated prices for dual enrollment; the October report said the number of dual enrollment students increased by 7.2 percent.
“The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center recognizes the value and importance of its role in providing accurate and reliable research to the higher education community,” wrote Doug Shapiro, the center’s executive director in a statement. “We deeply regret this error and are conducting a thorough review to understand the root cause and implement measures to prevent future occurrences of this type.”
On Jan. 23, the clearinghouse will issue another annual enrollment report based on current term estimates using different research methods.
The Department of Education flagged a potential data problem this fall when financial aid data showed a 5 percent increase in students receiving state aid. In a statement, Under Secretary James Kvaal said the Department was “encouraged and relieved” by the repair of the clean house.
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