Justin Trudeau’s announcement on Monday that he would resign was the last card the unpopular Canadian prime minister, who put his party on the brink of defeat in the general election, left to play.
The political conditions he led will give Mr. The Trudeau Liberal Party has a chance to reinvent itself without him. But they will also leave Canada weak as it faces President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has threatened the country with taxes that could disrupt its economy.
It appears to be a gamble Mr. Trudeau is willing to take.
To allow thousands of members of his party to choose his successor, a lengthy process that will involve campaigning, Mr Trudeau has suspended Parliament until March 24. A national election is expected to follow.
Holding early party leadership elections is par for the course in countries with parliamentary systems like Canada. Suspending Parliament to hold such an election is extremely rare. By doing so, Mr. Trudeau is staving off the potential collapse of his minority government and giving the Liberals time to choose a leader who won’t be weighed down by his poor poll numbers.
But it means that in two weeks, when Mr Trump returns to the Oval Office, Mr Trudeau will be leading Canada like a lame duck, weakening the country’s hand in key negotiations with his closest ally.
“The decline of the prime minister means that it will be difficult for him to fulfill any meaningful mandate to negotiate with the US, and it does not mean that there is unity in Canada,” said Xavier Delgado, senior producer of the program at the Canada Institute of the. Wilson Center, a foreign policy think tank based in Washington. “It’s not a good time for Canada to be in this situation.”
The opponents of Mr. Trudeau wanted a snap general election, which would allow a new government with a new mandate – likely to be led by Pierre Poilievre, whose Conservative Party has a commanding lead in the polls – to lead Canada’s response to Mr. Trump very quickly.
Mr. Trump has threatened to slap punitive tariffs on Canadian goods that could plunge the country’s economy into crisis and disrupt the decades-old North American trade pact. (It would also be harmful to the US economy; the two nations are major trading partners.)
The president-elect has consistently suggested that Canada should become part of the United States, calling it the “51st state.” He repeated his dangerous joke on social media on Monday, after the announcement of Mr Trudeau’s resignation: “Many people in Canada would LOVE to be the 51st Province,” Mr Trudeau said. US”
On Tuesday, speaking at a news conference at Mar-a-Lago, Mr he even suggested he might use “economic power” against Canada to get it, highlighting how high the stakes are in Canada.
Party first
While Mr. When Trudeau became the leader of the Liberals, the party had a joke. In the 2011 national election, it came third for the first time in its history. Mr Trudeau, who took over the leadership in 2013, is widely credited with resurrecting it and returning it to government two years later.
“The Liberal Party, as it is, has been Justin Trudeau’s party for more than a decade,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a think tank. That made it difficult for the party to let him go and for Mr. Trudeau to relinquish control, Ms. Kurl said.
But finally, on Monday morning, after weeks of pressure from the party to resign, Mr Trudeau admitted his time was up.
“I really feel that removing the controversy surrounding my continued leadership is an opportunity to lower the temperature,” he told reporters gathered in the freezing cold outside his Ottawa home.
“It has become clear to me about the internal battles that I will not be the leader of the Liberal Party in the next election,” he added. Until the Liberals choose their new leader, Mr. Trudeau said, he will continue in that role as prime minister.
The party’s internal elections, which will last a few weeks, will allow a handful of hopefuls to re-introduce themselves to the public, no longer as Trudeau collaborators but as candidates for party and national leadership.
“I think the Liberals are now clinging to the view that there is no way forward for him, but there is a way forward for someone else,” Ms Kurl said.
Still, with the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 25 per cent in the latest polls, the direction Mr Trudeau is giving his successor may be tricky.
“Sixty or 90 days is not a long time to re-establish a party after 10 years in power,” said Ms. Kurl. “How many rabbits are in the hat? How many more pivots?”
Brief relief
For many Canadians, the departure of Mr. Trudeau was a necessary condition if they were to consider voting for the Liberals.
David Coletto, who heads Abacus Data, a polling firm, said an early survey on Monday showed that Canadians felt comfortable with news of Mr. Trudeau’s resignation, and that his departure had the potential to distract from his disapproval.
“People say they feel free and hope that the prime minister will step down,” he said. “That’s a sign to me that there might be an opportunity for the Liberals to rebuild a relationship with Canadians.” But this is far from happening, he warned.
Although Mr. Trudeau’s departure can only improve the Liberals’ situation, analysts say, the country is unlikely to benefit from the absence of a leader as Mr.
As the new president begins to push his agenda – with Canada in his sights, where Mr. Trump complains about border security, Canadian military spending and trade imbalances – Canada will try to decide who is in charge.
“Canada will be much stronger in dealing with the United States if it can integrate its leader’s message — and that can work in any country,” said Mr. Delgado of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute.
Others were less concerned, suggesting that Canada’s cooperation with the Trump administration will be a long game.
Gerald Butts, who was Mr. Trudeau’s senior advisor and vice president at Eurasia Group, a consulting firm, said that no leader would be able to cut a deal with Mr. Trudeau. Trump on Day 1.
“Nothing irreparably bad will happen in the next three months,” said Mr. Butts. “We will have Trump for four years; The next three months will not be the whole story.”
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