A growing body of evidence suggests that Russia stepped up its attack on Ukraine in the lead-up to the November 5 United States election, in a possible attempt to strengthen independents who support Donald Trump.
It appears to be doubling down on that strategy ahead of Trump’s January 20 inauguration.
“November was the fifth month in a row that Russian troops suffered monthly losses,” the British Ministry of Defense said, as Ukraine estimated that 45,680 Russian soldiers were killed and wounded during the month.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces estimated Russian losses in September at 38,130 and in October at 41,980.
That rising number of casualties is because attacks on Russian soil have increased slowly despite the pain.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, estimates that Russia’s daily gains on Ukrainian territory averaged 22sq km (8.5 square miles) in October and 27sq km (10.4 square miles) in November.
“Thus Russian forces lost an estimated 125,800 casualties during intensified offensive operations in September, October, and November 2024 for a gain of 2,356 square kilometers,” ISW said.
These losses were more than American officials believed Russia could sustain. They put its hiring power at 25,000-30,000 per month.
Ukraine recorded a similar crescendo in airstrikes.
“From September to November 2024, the enemy used more than 6,000 UAVs and missiles in airstrikes in Ukraine,” said Victoria Vdovychenko, program director at the Center for Defense Strategies, a Ukrainian think tank, and a colleague at Cambridge University’s Center for Geopolitics. .
“This is three times the amount spent from June to August 2024 and four times the amount from September to November 2023,” he told Al Jazeera.
Before and after the election, Vdovychenko believes that Russia has also increased its information campaigns to manipulate US public opinion.
North Korean troops entered active combat in Russia’s Kursk region on election day, indicating that Russia had access to new recruits.
While US President Joe Biden responded to the defeat of Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris by authorizing US weapons to strike inside Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin fired an Oreshnik ballistic missile towards Ukraine in apparent retaliation.
But Russian chief of staff Valery Gerasimov recently told his American counterpart that the launch “was planned long before the Biden administration agreed to allow Ukraine to use the American ATACMS to penetrate deep into Russia”, reports the New York Times, citing American officials.
Putin, however, was able to create the image that it was the US that was provoking Russia and escalating the war.
These messages have all played right into the hands of the Trump campaign, his supporters agree.
“President Trump wants peace and an end to ‘endless wars’ that benefit big, entrenched people,” said Demetries Andrew Grimes, a former US military officer, pilot and diplomat who supports Trump.
“The American people made it clear by electing Trump that they want peace and an end to US funding for the war in Ukraine, which shows a growing concern about long-term involvement,” he told Al Jazeera.
“The topic of discussion has increased everywhere since the election, especially in foreign media,” said Vdovychenko. “However, Russia does not show that it is ready to enter into negotiations because it does not suggest that it is willing to give up anything.”
Russia is stepping up its offensive
Russia now appears to be stepping up its attacks, doubling down on the tactics that helped Trump win.
Ukraine estimated Russian casualties at at least 11,000 in the first week of December, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy included drones, missiles and landmines at more than 900 that week.
Putin outlined his goals for the talks in June.
“Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from the People’s Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk and Kherson and [Zaporizhia] regions,” Putin told foreign ministry officials, naming the four regions that his troops are part of by force.
“As soon as Kyiv announces that it is ready to make this decision … and officially announces that it is abandoning its plans to join NATO, our side will follow the cease-fire order and start negotiations,” Putin said.
Zelenskyy has outlined a “victory plan” that includes supplying Ukraine with more weapons and granting immediate unconditional NATO membership, guaranteeing its security.
In an interview with Sky News on November 30 he appeared to back down, and demanded NATO membership only in the free zones of Ukraine.
“Zelenskyy said [there are ways of bringing this conflict to an immediate end] if there was immediate NATO membership of the free territories of Ukraine and we deal with the occupied territories later,” said Keir Giles, Eurasia expert at Chatham House, a think tank based in London.
“But, he says, ‘no one really suggested that to us’.” You know it doesn’t start because NATO doesn’t do things quickly or quickly, even without the opposition of the US and Germany. Therefore, what Zelenskyy was doing, showed the lack of political will in NATO and the coalition of allies to reach an effective solution to this conflict. “
A majority of Ukrainians prefer to continue fighting, according to a poll released this week.
The New Europe Center, a Kyiv-based think tank, following its annual December public opinion poll, said “64.1 percent of Ukrainians believe that talks with Russia are not worth it unless Ukraine receives real security guarantees from the West”. “The argument is that Russia will start the war again after a while,” he said.
Can Trump leave Ukraine?
Some observers believe that Trump has already called Ukraine into the battlefield plan he had following the 2023 opposition.
Last fall, he pressured Republican members of Congress to reject $60.4bn in military aid, and succeeded in delaying it for six months.
“If you look at the pattern of Russia’s continued slow, incremental development, it seems to start after the Ukrainians have been disrupted in their ability to defend themselves by holding aid and ultimately starving for weapons,” Keir said. Giles, a Eurasia expert at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.
Ukraine was on the defensive in February this year as Russian forces advanced.
“[Trump’s administration] they want to pretend that the war is stopped faster than anything that will endure,” said Giles. “That’s why we’re likely to see a freeze or complete withdrawal of aid shortly after Trump takes office,” he told Al Jazeera.
A few days ago, Trump told NBC that Ukraine should “potentially” face cuts in US aid.
“Ukraine is completely dependent on the US, so if aid for one reason or another is cut that would have a big impact. It’s possible that Ukraine will have to give somewhere else,” said Michael Gjerstad, a military analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. (IISS), a think tank based in London.
“If aid, both programmatically and intelligence-wise, is completely cut off, then Ukraine is hurt and puts Putin in a more advanced position in negotiations,” he told Al Jazeera. “Even if there are European countries that can step in, it will not be enough to close the gap provided by the US.”
Not all people see it this way.
“Only $11.5bn of the $60bn from the US was to buy Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Danylyuk, a Kyiv-based fellow with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
He said he believes that Ukraine has already done wonders with one hand tied behind its back.
“There is always a shortage of equipment, ammunition and this is the reason why the Russians are making progress,” he told Al Jazeera. “It is surprising that they do not have better results because there are more of them than Ukrainians. Initially they were 140,000 in 2022, about half a million in 2023 and now about 800,000.”
Ukraine has about a million people in uniform, but that includes transport and administration and the military.
‘Resolute’ European Union pledges support for Ukraine
If Trump turns his back on Ukraine to pressure Zelenskyy in negotiations, Minna Alander, a researcher at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs (FIIA) hoped that Europe could close the gap.
“The four Nordics – Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden – have given and pledged $35bn in total, excluding EU aid contributions. That exceeds, for example, the current level of German support and pledges to Ukraine,” he told Al Jazeera.
“A coalition of the willing, including the Nordics, the Baltics, Poland and the UK, and possibly France, is also forming to ensure that European aid continues to flow even if Germany and the US slow down. Denmark has really led the way with its $8.5bn commitment to Ukraine and Norway recently increased its long-term aid program to $12bn.”
But in some areas, Ukraine will be left with no other areas, said Hanna Olofsson, spokeswoman for SOFF, the Swedish defense contractors’ union.
“In certain market segments – for example, Medium Altitude Long Endurance UAVs, tactical missiles, and long-range rockets, there is currently no European solution available on the market, due to the underinvestment of European governments, prioritization and industrial policy decisions in addition. decades ago,” he told Al Jazeera.
Whatever Europe does, many on the continent remember that even the Biden administration had no game plan.
“If there was a concerted plan,” said Giles. “The US, it has become painfully clear, was never interested in the victory of Ukraine because that would also mean the defeat of Russia, and the current administration is more concerned about the consequences of the defeat of Russia than the destruction of Ukraine.”
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